Do You Know What You Don't Know?

Cryptic but pertinent ;~)

One way we process unknowns is through assumptions. We know we don't know the answer (uncertainty) but assume something for planning purposes. Then we validate the assumption (true/false) and continue planning from there.

Some characteristics:

• The same statement may be understood as an assumption or a risk
• Assumptions may be low-level risks dependent on degree of uncertainty and impact (+/-)
• Negative event + low probability may = assumption
• Positive event + high probability may = assumption

The key points are:

• Must be some uncertainty
  
  100% probability = Fact: Neither risk nor assumption
  0% probability = Fiction: Neither risk nor assumption

  Must be outside the control of project team
  

  Events under control of team are part of work plan

  Neither mitigation nor contingency apply to assumptions

  Assumption: We expect something to happen

  Risk: We plan a response in the event something does or does not happen

Assumptions can be any one of three things:

1. Things taken for granted as staying the same
2. Things we don’t yet know for sure
3. Things we cannot establish as being true right now, but are likely to be true

How do we handle assumptions correctly?

Assumptions = Action Items

• Assumptions are neither fact nor fiction, simply unproven (level of uncertainly) statements
• Projects handle assumptions as open issues subject to validation
• Assumptions don't stay assumptions very long
• Action by the project is required to validate assumptions
• Example: If we make an assumption that no changes are required to a specific sub-system, then we immediately create an action item or open issue to validate that fact. We assign it to a person, give a date for completion, and monitor it to completion.
• Investigation proves the assumption true (fact) or false (fiction) and impact analysis determines further action (Work plan, risk, or issue)

Assuming this is valid,

William W. (Woody) Williams
Project Management Consultant
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