Anyone else noticed...
Submitted by softwarejanitor on Mon, 08/04/2008 - 11:31am.
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The huge drop in the number of jobs advertised on LinkedIn the past few days? I've noticed smaller but fairly steady declines over the past month or two on other sites like dice.com, but this drop on LinkedIn seems pretty abrupt, more than 10% drop in a couple of days time. I've had fewer contacts from recruiters lately as well, but nothing so sudden.
Anyone got any theories besides just the general economic malaise the country is in plus the move towards the generally slower fall season for jobs?
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Oh... I should have mentioned... the ideal reason for number of job postings going down would be if people are getting hired... Anyone have success stories to account for any of this?
Ping to see if anyone has been hired recently from a job posted on LinkedIn (or here) or if someone involved with hiring someone through a posting here would care to comment?
Please give us some positive news... I'm getting tired of posting nothing but downers.
I found someone here who posted their skill-set & placed him! He starts his new position next Monday :) Hope that gives someone some hope!
Success stories are always a good thing! Can you help the rest of us who are looking by giving us some insight about what, other than just matching buzzwords catches your attention when you are looking at people's skill-sets and profiles?
Well, for this particular one, it helps that he posted his entire resume, not just his skill-set. And when I contacted him, he was willing to talk to me! I've actually contacted a few people who posted a skill-set only, which of course is totally fine, and asked for an entire resume but never received a response, so it helps just with willingness to talk as much as anything! ELABORATION is awesome, as much detail as possible is great!
My LinkedIn profile contains almost everything that my resume does, and additionally has recommendations, etc. Its still not getting me much interest, at least not for jobs that are suitable matches, so I am not sure that just quantity of detail is what it takes. I've been trying to refine my profile and skill set which a couple of people on here have graciously been helping me with (y'all know who you are), and I will probably revise my resume as well in order to better sell myself.
I actually called you last week about an Informix 4GL position :) I just now went back & looked at your resume, and from my end, I think yours looks great. A lot of people don't elaborate much, or put exactly what technologies they did in what position, some just lump them all into a "skill set" at the top of their resume. The thing is, you were willing to talk to me when I called & that's a big help for me. I don't have a fit for you right now, but when I do, I will remember talking to you, I'll know what you're looking for, and it will make the process that much easier (at least on my end). The other guy I found on here & placed that starts today... the first time I talked to him, I didn't have "the fit" for him, but when it came up, I called him back & it all worked out! So, I guess that's where I'm coming from on elaboration as well as willingness to talk :)
Yeah, I remember the 4GL conversation. I really need to just take that off my resume since it isn't something I'm really interested in working with again. It along with some other obsolete buzzwords like Pascal should probably go, as they probably make me seem too old... not quite as bad as COBOL, but the same general thing.
I'm always willing to talk and help when I can. So far it hasn't really paid off for me personally, at least not in the last 6 years... but I like to keep the lines of communication open.
Excellent!
Actually, yes. Two offers...... One from Linked In
Excellent! Congratulations... Any tips you can share to help others replicate your success?
Hum, my skills are in biz dev, marketing, and sales, not IT per se.
Well, I think there are a few other people around here who are in or would like to be in those areas and could benefit from your advice.
Are people with strategy and marketing skill sets that rarified here? All of the intellectual property (patents) mean absolutely nothing if you don't make/sell products. Jeteye and I spoke about that very topic about a week or so ago.
No, I think there are more people with strategy and marketing skills than there are people with good and unique ideas that are creating opportunities. You are right that patents and other IP are of little use (other than patent trolls perhaps) if you don't have a way to use them. There are lots of people around here that are ready to hitch on to new startup opportunities if they present themselves but aren't necessarily in a place to get them off the ground by themselves.
Ahh, the dilemma. Commercialization is the key, but also mystical to many people, even to some of those who "profess." And even when you know what you're doing, like Jeteye or I or a few others, there is no magic wand that you can wave to force a commercialization of the next "wizbang" technology. Having been involved in Tech Transfer for nearly 2 decades now, the process is very challenging to say the least. That is why collaboration of people with multiple disciplines is important (at least in my world).
Oh, well dah on my part. Of course I would love to help.
Of course. Frankly it might be interesting to create a sort of consortium to get that mass of technology and business orientation together. I'd love to work on it with you. But since your "up there, and I'm down here..." etc. etc. etc.
Jeteye, pls refer to the post above from lunchtime:
Are people with strategy and
Submitted by NY2TX on Fri, 08/15/2008 - 12:56pm.
Are people with strategy and marketing skill sets that rarified here? All of the intellectual property (patents) mean absolutely nothing if you don't make/sell products. Jeteye and I spoke about that very topic about a week or so ago
I hope it is more seasonal and not a true indication of significant local slowdown in hiring. Although, having been actively searching for a local position myself, it is very 'dry' out there right now. I too have noticed a significant drop in opening postings. It would seem that highly-skilled candidates (like myself) would have an easier time finding something; that's not the case right now.
Is it just Austin or is Texas in general seeing the same trends? Seems the slowdown is occuring outside of Austin as well, from what I've been seeing.
Are companies just being overly cautious, or just extremely picky and taking their time in finding candidtates?
..waiting for the pendulum to start swinging the other way...
I'm hoping it is seasonal, although I think we've got to be prepared for the slowdown that is trickling in from the general economy. Usually when there are slowdowns companies postpone or cancel hiring until they are able to weather the storm. That means we all have to work harder and network harder to try to keep each other working.
Putting poitics aside, the economy is in slowdown mode. LinkedIn job listings are down? Businesses are running scared, and so are investors. But here in Texas, its 100 degrees out there. I've got some possible business pending with a group in the ME. I've been told they do nothing during July-Aug. when its 135 degs.
Yeah, 100+ degree weather can take the wind out of sails...
No wind down here in sunny SA. Only breeze, according to my wife, is the hot air that blows everytime I say something
[Yes, that's a joke - then again, if you have to explain a joke, it probably wasn't funny in the first place.]
The number keeps dropping like a brick. A couple of weeks ago it was around 110... today only 72!
It is also worth noting is the number of postings that are quite old and may drop off soon. The number of new postings is pretty small so unless that picks up and/or some of the older jobs are re-posted we may see some additional abrupt drops over the next few weeks.
While I've been hunting for quite a little while now, and getting daily postings from multiple areas of the country, I've noticed a big drop in local tech jobs here. However... Colorado is growing at a rapid rate, along with steady rates, at good volumes, in Dallas, Houston, and back where I grew up in the Silicon Valley.
Really don't want to relocate again... Anyone want to buy a house in an area where job grouth is stunned, housing is sort of holding, and the weather is a beautifull 100+ almost everyday? :o)
Gotta love it.
I've been hunting for a long time also. I'm in the situation where I can't really afford to relocate if I wanted to because I bought my house right before the 2001 crash and values in my neighborhood have never gotten back to where they were, and with the Dell facility nearby closing, prices have started to go back down again and I'm seeing a lot more go into foreclosure lately. At any rate, I'm sure I couldn't get what I paid for if I sold the house even before paying realtor's commission, and probably not even what I still owe on it when you figure that. Given that almost no companies pay relocation assistance anymore and people like me are stuck where we are at.
On the up side... We are still waking up and sucking in air, so we can always ride out the storm until the market picks up. However, it always seems that once the market does pick up and we get rolling into whatever challanges and jobs present themselves, we get so into what we're doing that we're not really motovated to pick up and make the move, until the next dry time comes around again.
Once again pondering the idea of opening that surf and margarita spot on a beach somewhere. :o)
Yes, everyone is watching the Olympics?
Yep... Its hard to watch sometimes...
In a break last night my chemist and I watched one of the women's swimming races where the Chinese competitor broke the World record but "only" came in 3rd. What do you do then?
Lots of world records being set... Some high points for the US teams... but some really embarrassingly bad performances too.
I'm kind of angry that everyone seems afraid to challenge the Chinese about their cheating, especially in using obviously underage gymnasts. Looking at some of their athletes I also would suspect they've used performance enhancers. And its pretty shocking when you hear the near slave-like living conditions they put them through.
The slave-like conditions are not unlike the reports we used to hear about the Soviets and East Germans.
That is true of course, but while it makes me feel better in general, I'm sure it isn't much consolation for the Chinese athletes... One of the commentators talked about how China today is a whole series of contradictions, and this is a great example of how in some ways they've opened up, and in some ways they are still the same brutal military dictatorship they were when Mao was still alive.
Query. What does the Olympics have to do with technology sector unemployment?
Yes, I was wondering how the conversation became tilted in that direction... Looks like one comment did it.
Hey, the Chinese oligarchs treat their athletes the same way US employers treat software engineers!
O.K., maybe that is a little bit of an exaggeration...
Are software engineers feeling "put-upon" these days? Now, I'm not a software person. I'm a management and policy geek. But like the vagries of the housing market. Back before the real estate crash in the early eighties, I lost money on real estate in Florida! But isn't the job market sort of like the sand along an ocean beach? Sometimes, the tide carries sand to your beach, and other times it carries it away and deposits it on someone else's beach. And other times, it just washes away. I'm not going to get into the economics of job flow, but if a watering holes dries up...etc.
Software engineers have always been treated badly in some ways... if you're familiar with "Office Space" one of the protagonist's complaints is about having "6 bosses". In other words, every time he messes up a "TPS report" he hears about it from 6 people.
Since the crash though, its been worse because software people were the worst hit by the crash and have seen the least recovery. There are a lot of factors that go into that, from software commoditization (companies are buying packaged software rather than developing in-house), to automation (tools which allow relatively unskilled people to "write" software, usually by some kind of "drag and drool" interface) and mostly by outsourcing, off-shoring and importation of hundreds of thousands of cheap imported workers on H1B and L1 visas. All this has led to large amounts of unemployment and underemployment for software engineers, weak job security and salaries falling.
The thing about the tide is you can depend that tomorrow the cycle will start over. Unfortunately, for software people it just doesn't seem like it will ever improve again. We've seen boom and bust cycles in the past, but nothing like the boom we saw from 1998-2000 and the depths of the crash between 2001-2004. Unfortunately we've largely had a "jobless recovery" since then, up until this year when the market has started to shed jobs in massive quantities again. In the past we never saw periods more than a year or two before we saw substantial recovery with a real rebound in the job market if not actual job growth. This time the market only recovered about 1/3 of the losses from the crash before things started tanking again, and that just isn't healthy.
Anyway, the bottom line is that many software people feel like we are the "steelworkers" of the 21st century. While there are still a few people working in that industry these days, clearly the glory days are behind it in this country. And as the US auto industry and other manufacturing continues to tank, even the few remaining steelworker jobs are at risk.
The H1B/L1 issue I'm familiar with. I find it odd that Bill gates was making so much noise about increasing the H1B issuances, and yet, Americans and American jobs are put in jeopardy. Obviously Gates doesn't have to worry about "your" job and is interested in his company's productivity. But there are two othersides of the H1B issue. First is the real STEM void that exists and is expanding in the U.S., and the other is the question of terrorism and who we are allowing into the country. So that's my "opening the can of worms" moment for today.
There isn't really a STEM void. There is actually a huge glut.
When people like Bill Gates say there is a shortage, what they really mean is there is a shortage of people who will gladly work long hours for low pay. That's the bottom line of why they want more H1Bs. They talk about the "best and brightest", but anyone who has worked with H1Bs knows that isn't reality. Some are very smart and capable, but some are really awful. The average is somewhere in between, but when you look at the general experience and skill level of H1Bs compared to that of the domestic candidate base, the imports just aren't up to the same quality. And H1B workers are often accused of puffing up or outright falsifying their resumes. There is a lot of criticism of the US educational system by proponents of H1Bs, but the reality is that if you ask most people, a degree from a foreign university (India or China) is not as good as one from the average state university here. If employers couldn't get H1Bs for 40% less than citizens and green card holders and then treat them like indentured servants (because they can't go to work for other employers w/o a lot of hassle), they wouldn't be interested. It is true that enrollment in tech related majors at US universities is down by 60+% since 2001, but it is because today's kids are smart enough to know that there are no jobs out there for grads in those majors, not because there is a lack of aptitude. Kids see their techie parents in their 40s and 50s struggle to stay employed and pick a career path that offers a more safe future.
During the bust from 2001 to 2004 the tech sector in the US lost nearly a million jobs. Between 2005-2007 it recovered only about 1/3 of those. During the period between 2001 and 2007 more than 130k H1B and L1 visas were issued per year and it is estimated that there are at least 1/2 million guest workers in the country at any given time (out of less than 4 million total tech workers). Anyone who says that Americans are not being displaced by cheaper foreign workers is either ignorant of the facts or deliberately misleading.
If there was a shortage of tech workers, we'd see an increase in the number of real job postings, if you follow sites like dice.com, during the 1990s up until the crash they had listed around 1/4 million job postings. During the depths of the bust that dropped to as low as 25 thousand. Since then it has rebounded to almost 100 thousand, but has dropped back from that this year. Note of course that job postings are not an accurate measure of the number of jobs available since many postings don't represent real jobs that are actively being recruited for (resume fishing, etc) and a large percentage of jobs are posted several times by companies and multiple recruiting agencies. So if there are 90k jobs listed on dice.com, there are probably really less than 20k real jobs that companies are really trying to fill.
If there was a shortage you'd see salaries increasing, instead we've seen them essentially flat to down. Many people who have been forced to change jobs due to layoffs or whatever have reported having to take a lower salary when they've been able to find a new job. If the job market were healthy you'd see most tech workers reporting getting several interviews within days of them starting their job search and out of those interviews they'd usually be entertaining multiple offers. You'd see employers move quickly to fill open jobs and you'd see them be flexible on requirements rather than demanding 110% match to huge laundry lists of skills, education and experience. You'd see employers willing to train employees including new hires. You'd see employers willing to assist in relocating people.
It is often the case that companies who are crying about a "shortage" are the same ones that routinely lay off thousands of employees whenever they don't quite meet their numbers for a quarter. Even companies like Microsoft and Oracle that are so rolling in profits that they rarely lay people off lose a lot of employees because they treat workers poorly and thus they see H1Bs who are tied to a single employer as a great thing.
As for terrorism and who we are allowing into the country... most of the H1Bs I have worked with have been Indian or Chinese, and I'm not really that worried about them blowing up buildings or hijacking airplanes. That said, from a security standpoint we are running a risk if we eventually outsource/off-shore all of our capabilities to design and manufacture hardware and software. And in many areas we're already compromised that way, especially in hardware.
No excessive detail here now but perhaps a clarification. I'm not talking about existing skilled labor, I'm talking about this country's shortfall in STEM vs the rest of the World. In "Gaining Momentum - Losing Ground," a study published by www.tap2015.org, based on data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) jurisdiction, 2006, when looking at 15 year old student, the US is far behind other developed nations, ranking in the middle tertile or worse for science and math literacy (at least according to these measures).
So we're talking two different things. A glut of current workers, yes. A sparsity of future workers, however. This isn't the first report of this kind speaking to the "dumbing down of the American student."
Frankly I really can't bring myself to care too much about whether 15 year olds are behind if we can't provide jobs for workers we have who have already got the education, skills and experience. Given that the retirement age will continue to climb as systems like social security fail and worker's retirement savings in 401ks are erased by losses, generation X and Y people will mostly have at least 30+ more years in their careers. I also expect that a lot of baby boomers will find their plans to retire dashed when social security is bankrupted and they find their retirement savings wiped out by inflation and tanked stock market. To make matters worse, over the next few years between 1/3 to 1/2 of US tech workers will likely permanently lose their jobs and be forced into other career paths. Given all that we could go for years graduating absolutely no STEM students and without allowing any H1B or L1 visas and have an abundant supply of workers. Today's students should go into careers that are not subject to off-shoring or in competition with cheap imported labor, in other words they are right not to put their resources into tech careers that will not provide well paying jobs for them. So even if that study is correct it really doesn't matter and even if things haven't caught up in other developed countries they will.
OK, I look at it from a future POV. So, this is just a question. Is the "overabundance" of IT/software people a regional thing?
As for retirement plans...mine was lost in 2000. I'm on my own so until (or unless) my company makes a big hit, I will work til I drop since I won't be able to live the way I want to live on what's left. But no one is supposed to feel sorry for me. Personally, therefore, I have a difficult time empathizing with those whose investments have dissipated in a down market, unless they were among those duped by Enron for example.
National competitiveness is a critical issue. One of the basic issues is STEM education; another is patents filed and issued etc. etc. etc. And from a security point of view, the H1B is an issue. No need to expand here because I don't have the actual number of "visa overstays" related to work permit and education visas readily in hand, but it is an issue.
The overabundance of IT/software people is somewhat regional, but in general most areas have gluts. Areas that were the worst hit by the .com bust like Austin, the SV/SF Bay area are the worst off. Areas that are getting worse right now are places like NYC and LA which are now taking the brunt of the 2008 financial industry meltdown.
I've never been able to get enough ahead to ever have much of a retirement plan to lose and I've got no expectations on living to an old age so I will also be working until I keel over. However I can certainly understand the anger that people have who did the "right thing" and tried to build retirement savings only to see it erased by inflation and a manipulated stock market. While not being duped as obviously as the victims a.k.a. former employees of companies like Enron, just about everyone who has put their faith in 401ks backed by dollar denominated instruments like mutual funds have been or will be duped as well.
National competitiveness is an issue that appears to be a lost cause. In all reality, it was probably beyond hope 20+ years ago. We've already allowed H1Bs and other foreign nationals to compromise our ability to maintain national security, I'm not sure there is a way to put that genie back in the bottle. As for visa overstays, they are a substantial problem, as are abuses and overstays by people who are on non-work visas like F1 (student), H2 (H1B dependent), etc. There are no limits on those visas, and they are a hidden source of workers.
Not that it matters since it appears to be a done deal that regardless of who wins the White House this fall the cap on H1Bs will be eliminated or at very least greatly expanded and we will not only see them used to put tens if not hundreds of thousands more American IT workers into unemployment, we will also see their use expanded out of tech workers to start to replace professionals in other fields such as medicine and even law.
I haven't given up on National Competitiveness. Hard to avoid politics on this. Neither candidate is ideal. Not sure I agree that the H1B ceiling will be eliminated. As much as I'd like to, we really can't argue National Security issues here. You may or may not be interested in reading this, although its now three years dated. The position is still valid (IMO).
There is one clear choice for the WH (at least as I see it).
I've also made up my mind when it comes to my vote, but I'm a one-issue voter and as much as I care about the economy and job market, its not my most important hot button. That said, while I agree that neither candidate for president is someone who I can unreservedly endorse, even ignoring my most important issue, one of the two clearly stands out as someone I'd definitely not want in the White House. Unfortunately it doesn't look like its going my way this fall.
And as for the ceiling being eliminated, big money interests have made huge donations to both parties to ensure that it happens.
4th Quarter;
Two tech recruiters I've talked to here in Austin say that the 4th quarter is much better than the 3rd... Let's see what happens when school starts next week and a lot of people are back from vacations.
let's hope it "ticks up"
-tim
If you are using Linkedin, make sure everything you put down shows how you can help anyone who wants to help you. Also, speak the language of money and return on equity (or effort). The bottom line IS the bottom line when someone wants to hire you!
No one really cares about what you have done in the past. What they do care about is what you will do for them now (and in the future).